Just played my last session of poker for the month of April. I have played 12 cash game sessions this month and have turned a profit in 11 of those. Most of those 11 were small wins seeing me walk away 4-10 BBs ahead from when I sat down, but all but one of those sessions lasted more than 90 minutes.
I am nowhere near being able to pay for a trip to Vegas solely with my poker winnings this year, but if I can keep my cash game tight throughout spring and into the summer I might just have to spend a week out there during the WSOP just to take advantage of the side action. With decent cards and/or luck I am pretty sure I can win more than enough to freeroll myself into one of the smaller buy-in events.
Hell, if I can book a few big wins in the coming month I might be able to move up to a limit where the money actually means something. I've still got a few leaks here and there, but my profit per hour keeps creeping up toward my hourly wage at work. Hopefully in the next couple months I'll be making more per hour with my "side job" than I am at my 9-5.
In other news, the Lions seemed to have another sub par draft this year. We really couldn't mess up the second pick as far as I am concerned, and I really like the idea of having Calvin Johnson on this team. But it seems that everyone in the war room was too busy giving each other congratulatory blowjobs the rest of the day to pay attention to who was out there that could actually help the team this year, instead of holding a clipboard as a third string QB or playing on kick coverage teams.
Other than that the weekend weather was great and it really looks like spring is finally here. I am looking forward to many a lazy afternoon on the porch watching the hilarity that is my neighborhood in the summer.
The Pistons looked good disposing of the Magic in 4 games, while Chicago did the same to the Heat. I can't wait to see what the crowd is like when the Bulls come to town for games one and two of our series.
The Red Wings looked pretty good against Calgary in the first round, but playing the Sharks is a whole different story. San Jose is a much better team than Calgary, and we suffered a couple injuries in round one that might really effect the next few games of round two. As I sit here game three in San Jose is tied 0-0 halfway through the first period, with the series tied at one game apiece.
Last but not least, my golf game still sucks....but it's not any worse than the guys I play with so I am ok. After spotting Mark and Mark three strokes on the first hole yesterday I only finished two strokes behind them for the nine holes we played. My short game failed me and I three putted on three different holes because I misread the cut and/or the speed on the green. After a few more days at the range and a couple more rounds I should be able to get a decent swing back and play well enough through the summer.
Monday, April 30, 2007
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
NHL Round One Results
So I was a little off on the number of games for most of the series, but I did manage to correctly pick who would move on to the next round and who was going to be hitting the golf course early. I am not as confident in my second round picks, but here they are anyway.
Detroit vs San Jose:
With my Wings a little banged up going into our matchup against San Jose I am a little worried. With all the pressure on this team to win a playoff series, I hope that they can focus on round two now that they have finally beaten a team they are supposed to in the first round of the playoffs. Hasek has been playing well enough to carry us to the finals, and if he gets some defensive support in this series we should advance in 6 or less. Normally I would bet the Wings on the money line for game one at home in any playoff series, but I think the Sharks may come in and steal this game.
Pick: Detroit in 6
Anaheim vs Vancouver:
I think the long Dallas series will really take it's toll on Vancouver. They will be fired up for the first couple games in Anaheim, which is good, and I'd look for them to seriously push the Ducks in those games but I just think Anaheim is gonna grind them down and take the series pretty handily.
Pick: Anaheim in 5
Buffalo vs NYR:
It's no fluke that Buffalo was the best team in the regular season. Usually in the NHL that doesn't mean much in the playoffs, but I really don't see the Rangers hanging with the Sabres this series. This could be painful for NY.
Pick: Buffalo in 4
NJ vs Ottawa:
I think this will be the best series of the second round and could go either way. I really think it will come down to goaltending, and for my money there hasn't been a better pressure goalie in the NHL the last decade or so than Martin Brodeur. He looked someone average in the first couple games against Tampa Bay, but the defense shored up in front of him after that and he played very well the rest of the series. NJ could ride his play to the finals, and if they do he will almost certainly be a lock for the Conn-Smythe no matter who wins the cup.
Pick: NJ in 6
Detroit vs San Jose:
With my Wings a little banged up going into our matchup against San Jose I am a little worried. With all the pressure on this team to win a playoff series, I hope that they can focus on round two now that they have finally beaten a team they are supposed to in the first round of the playoffs. Hasek has been playing well enough to carry us to the finals, and if he gets some defensive support in this series we should advance in 6 or less. Normally I would bet the Wings on the money line for game one at home in any playoff series, but I think the Sharks may come in and steal this game.
Pick: Detroit in 6
Anaheim vs Vancouver:
I think the long Dallas series will really take it's toll on Vancouver. They will be fired up for the first couple games in Anaheim, which is good, and I'd look for them to seriously push the Ducks in those games but I just think Anaheim is gonna grind them down and take the series pretty handily.
Pick: Anaheim in 5
Buffalo vs NYR:
It's no fluke that Buffalo was the best team in the regular season. Usually in the NHL that doesn't mean much in the playoffs, but I really don't see the Rangers hanging with the Sabres this series. This could be painful for NY.
Pick: Buffalo in 4
NJ vs Ottawa:
I think this will be the best series of the second round and could go either way. I really think it will come down to goaltending, and for my money there hasn't been a better pressure goalie in the NHL the last decade or so than Martin Brodeur. He looked someone average in the first couple games against Tampa Bay, but the defense shored up in front of him after that and he played very well the rest of the series. NJ could ride his play to the finals, and if they do he will almost certainly be a lock for the Conn-Smythe no matter who wins the cup.
Pick: NJ in 6
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Today's Picks
I wanted to get more of these in this week, but hey.
Detroit -240
Det/Cal under 5
Ottawa +115
Ott/Pit under 6.5
NHL playoff games are all about match-ups and adjustments to those match-ups. Game 2 between the Wings and Flames should be relatively low scoring. I see a 2-0 or 2-1 game.
After playing a high energy game just yesterday, Ottawa and Pittsburgh should play a little tired today. Both teams need to make quite a few adjustments. I believe the Senators will implement their adjustments a lot better than the Penguins, but coming home will mean a lot to Pittsburgh. Ottawa should get on the board early to take the crowd down a notch.
Detroit -240
Det/Cal under 5
Ottawa +115
Ott/Pit under 6.5
NHL playoff games are all about match-ups and adjustments to those match-ups. Game 2 between the Wings and Flames should be relatively low scoring. I see a 2-0 or 2-1 game.
After playing a high energy game just yesterday, Ottawa and Pittsburgh should play a little tired today. Both teams need to make quite a few adjustments. I believe the Senators will implement their adjustments a lot better than the Penguins, but coming home will mean a lot to Pittsburgh. Ottawa should get on the board early to take the crowd down a notch.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
NHL First Round
I used to make brackets every year for the NHL playoffs to see how well I was really paying attention to the game throughout the year. This year I have paid little attention to the game itself and have relied more on stats to tell me about the games and match-ups. Here are my thoughts on round one.
Eastern Conference
#1 Buffalo vs #8. NY Islanders
I really don’t see the Sabres having too much of a problem with the Isles. NY may win game 3 or 4 at home, but I think that’s about it.
Pick: Buffalo in 5
#2 New Jersey vs #7 Tampa Bay
Another series where I think the lower seed is really overmatched. Martin Brodeur is a machine. 2.18 GAA this season (3rd in NHL, 1st in East) in 78 games (1st in NHL). Impressive stats for a goalie, but even more I think it’s a great indicator of how well this NJ team plays as a whole. Tampa might be able to take a game at home, but I doubt it.
Pick: NJ in 4
#3 Atlanta vs #6 NY Rangers
I really like the Rangers team this year and think that they will take this series if they get some good play in goal. I think they will steal a game in Atlanta and lock up the series in NY in game 6. If they don’t take it in six, I don’t think the win game 7 in Atlanta.
Pick: NYR in 6
#4 Ottawa vs #5 Pittsburgh
Nothing would please the NHL front office more than the Pens making it deep into the playoffs led by the great play of Sidney Crosby. I think Crosby will play well and could cause some match-up issues for the Senators, but I think Ottawa will prevail. I also think all seven games will be very close 1-2 goal difference games.
Pick: Ottawa in 7
Western Conference
#1 Detroit vs #8 Calgary
Being a Red Wing homer I always get a little too optimistic in the first round of the playoffs considering the Wings track record over the last few years. That being said, I think this team is ready for anything and barring any major injuries (keep and eye on Bertuzzi) we should take this series handily, with the possibility of a sweep. Look for Hasek to get 2 shutouts in this series.
Pick: Detroit in 5
#2 Anaheim vs #7 Minnesota
Another series that could be a sweep, but I think that Backstrom might just stand on his head in one or two games and really frustrate the Ducks. Even if he handles the playoffs as well as he handled the regular season, I don’t think he can keep his GAA under 2 in this series and it may actually end up being double that when all is said and done.
Pick: Anaheim in 5
#3 Vancouver vs #6 Dallas
I also think this series has the underdog really overmatched and Vancouver should win pretty easily.
Pick: Vancouver in 5
#4 Nashville vs #5 San Jose
This may be the most entertaining match-up in the entire first round. I think that the games will be close, could all be pretty high scoring, and it will go seven games.
Pick: San Jose in 7
Eastern Conference
#1 Buffalo vs #8. NY Islanders
I really don’t see the Sabres having too much of a problem with the Isles. NY may win game 3 or 4 at home, but I think that’s about it.
Pick: Buffalo in 5
#2 New Jersey vs #7 Tampa Bay
Another series where I think the lower seed is really overmatched. Martin Brodeur is a machine. 2.18 GAA this season (3rd in NHL, 1st in East) in 78 games (1st in NHL). Impressive stats for a goalie, but even more I think it’s a great indicator of how well this NJ team plays as a whole. Tampa might be able to take a game at home, but I doubt it.
Pick: NJ in 4
#3 Atlanta vs #6 NY Rangers
I really like the Rangers team this year and think that they will take this series if they get some good play in goal. I think they will steal a game in Atlanta and lock up the series in NY in game 6. If they don’t take it in six, I don’t think the win game 7 in Atlanta.
Pick: NYR in 6
#4 Ottawa vs #5 Pittsburgh
Nothing would please the NHL front office more than the Pens making it deep into the playoffs led by the great play of Sidney Crosby. I think Crosby will play well and could cause some match-up issues for the Senators, but I think Ottawa will prevail. I also think all seven games will be very close 1-2 goal difference games.
Pick: Ottawa in 7
Western Conference
#1 Detroit vs #8 Calgary
Being a Red Wing homer I always get a little too optimistic in the first round of the playoffs considering the Wings track record over the last few years. That being said, I think this team is ready for anything and barring any major injuries (keep and eye on Bertuzzi) we should take this series handily, with the possibility of a sweep. Look for Hasek to get 2 shutouts in this series.
Pick: Detroit in 5
#2 Anaheim vs #7 Minnesota
Another series that could be a sweep, but I think that Backstrom might just stand on his head in one or two games and really frustrate the Ducks. Even if he handles the playoffs as well as he handled the regular season, I don’t think he can keep his GAA under 2 in this series and it may actually end up being double that when all is said and done.
Pick: Anaheim in 5
#3 Vancouver vs #6 Dallas
I also think this series has the underdog really overmatched and Vancouver should win pretty easily.
Pick: Vancouver in 5
#4 Nashville vs #5 San Jose
This may be the most entertaining match-up in the entire first round. I think that the games will be close, could all be pretty high scoring, and it will go seven games.
Pick: San Jose in 7
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