Thursday, May 10, 2007

More Hockey Stuff


Two rounds and twelve teams down, two rounds and four teams left. Generally speaking, the first two rounds of the NHL playoffs are usually easy money for anyone that knows anything about the game. Case in point; I have not paid nearly as much attention to the game since the lockout that I did before it and I have gone 11-1 picking the winners in each series so far. No matter how bad I do from here on out, the worst I can be is 11-4. And that might end up being the case because I am a lot less confident about these match ups than I was about the first two rounds, but seeing as I love sports and betting on playoff games and series I’ll stick it out for the rest of the Stanley Cup run.

So now that I got the bragging about my 11-1 record in the first two rounds out of the way, twice now, here are my picks for the Conference Finals.

Eastern Conference:

#1 Buffalo vs #4 Ottawa

I’ve felt all along that Buffalo was the team to beat in the playoffs, and even though they didn’t sweep the Rangers like I had thought I still feel the same. Ottawa did a great job in taking out the Devils last round (my only wrong pick so far), but I really think that New Jersey did more to lose that series than Ottawa did to win it. I really don't want to take anything away from Ottawa's win, as they are a very good team, but I feel that New Jersey would have taken them down if both teams were playing their respective A games throughout the series. That being said, I think Buffalo could take Ottawa even if the Sabres only bring their B+ game every night.

These games should be fast paced with both teams getting a lot of quality scoring chances. This could very well be the best series of the entire playoffs for the fans who aren’t hockey purists. I don’t know that the games will all be high scoring, it’s hard to tell how either goalie will handle the pressure of this series while facing a lot of tough shots. Both goalies have played very well so far, and I am really starting to respect Ray Emery’s (OTT) focus and mental toughness. That being said, I really think that Ryan Miller will be the deciding factor in this series. The kid is a puck magnet. I think he’s let up 2 rebounds so far in 11 playoff games. OK I am probably exaggerating a little here, but that’s what it seems like to me. As a shooter, you better get the puck past him on the first attempt because it’s very unlikely that puck is gonna bounce back your way.

Buffalo’s biggest challenge will be finding a way to contain Ottawa’s top line of Heatley, Alfredsson, and Spezza who have combined for 16 goals in 10 games. All of the other forwards for the Sens have combined for only 11 goals. Buffalo will try to keep Tallinder and Lydman out there whenever Ottawa has their top line on the ice. This defensive pairing did a good job against the Rangers top line last series, and should give Miller a decent look at most of the shots from Heatley and company.

I think this series will go six games and seem a lot tighter than it actually is. This series should be exactly what the NHL was hoping to get after tweaking the rules in recent years to open up the games a little, and therefore should be a lot more entertaining for a wider base of fans….if anyone watches that is. Two small market teams in America’s least favorite “major” sport who have avid fan bases in their respective markets, but no real broad appeal elsewhere. Sidney Crosby may be the player the NHL is counting on to bring more fans to the game, but I think this series could help do that sooner, if only the NHL could get it out there for more people to see,

Pick: Buffalo in 6 (and leaning toward taking the OVER in every game of the series)

Since I rambled on too long about the Eastern Conference match up, I don’t have any time left to do my Western Conference breakdown today. Look for it tomorrow.

Tonight’s picks:

Pistons +2.5

Buffalo -140

Buf/Ott OVER 5

No comments: